Kinetic theory for the emergence of complex behavior in social and economic systems


Modeling Crop Choice of Subsistence Farmers in Afghanistan

Edward MacKerrow

Los Alamos National Laboratory

Abstract:  

Farmers in Afghanistan are faced with complex decisions of crop choice. Expected precipitation, security, availability of land, debt denominated in opium and/or cash, and patronage networks effect the choice of whether to grow food, marijuana, or opium crops. A rich set of data has been collected via surveys on why Afghanistan farmers have chosen to cultivate, or not cultivate, opium. We have developed an agent-based simulation using these data on choices in an attempt to reproduce some of the general trends measured in opium economics in Afghanistan. I will present our current progress and challenges we have discovered in our attempt to build a simulation that could be useful for policy design and testing.